Air-Style Beijing

The Air & Style riders draw was held yesterday, deciding which rider goes up against who in the 1^st knock-out round of the competition (see results here). The match ups look like it will be a crazy contest, as each match up seems impossible to call before hand.

That’s why we at the TTR office didn’t even try and give you predictions, but instead let our brave media partner Onboard make early calls about each face off: “Who do you reckon will make it through? Calling those 8 rounds of potential snowboarding El Clásicos is a tough call, but seeing as we put it out there we’ll give you our predictions…”

Check out Onboard’s Air & Style predictions for the 1^st round!

The Southern Hemisphere competitive freestyle snowboard season is almost coming to an end. Just one last banger weekend is on the schedule and the highest ranked snowboarders, Jamie Anderson (USA) and Sebastien Toutant (CAN), in the Swatch TTR World Snowboard Tour Ranking are looking to defend their spot at the star-studded NZ and OZ 3Stars, the Boost Sno Show and the Billabong BroDown! 

For the full list of attending riders – go check the event bio pages:

Boost Mobile Sno Sho

Billabong BroDown

Current Men’s TTR World Ranking List

Current Women’s TTR World Ranking List 

Check below to see how your favorite rider’s standing could look like after the contest! All predictions are based on the available rider lists pre-event:

3Star Boost SnoSho (AUS)

1. Seb Toutant: Can defend his TTR Tour Lead with a TOP5 finish in the contest against Reid

2. Charles Reid: Head to head with Toutant for World Nr. 1 (if attends)

4. Eric Willet: stays in the TTR TOP5 (if attends)

6. Sage Kotsenburg: very high chances to move into TOP5 (if attends)

20. Marco Grilc: Good chances to move into TTR TOP10

31. Chris Kroell: can move closer to the TTR TOP20 (if attends)

56. Jye Kearney: can move into TTR TOP50

89. Jacob Koia: can move into TOP50 with a 10th place at SnoSho

3Star Billabong BroDown Men (NZL)

16. Antti Autti: Has slight chances to move into TTR TOP5

21. Seppe Smits: Has slight chances to move into the TTR TOP10

24. James Hamilton: Has good chances to move into the TTR TOP20

51. Risto Mattila: Will move into the TTR TOP50

66. Shayne Pospisil: Will move into the TTR TOP50

3Star Billabong BroDown Women (NZL)

1. Jamie Anderson: Will stay in World Nr. 1. Only if Pancochova finishes 1st or 2nd in the competition and Anderson DNS, we would have a Tour Lead change.

4. Sarka Pancochova: If Sarka podium in 1st or 2nd she has a shot at #1

8. Davis-Meehan: Could move past Kelly Clark into World Nr. 7 if she finishes TOP5

17. Shelly Gotlied: Very likely to move into TTR TOP10

(73. ) Luxton, (75.) Frost, (78.) Lockhart and (83.) Jenny Jones could all move into the TTR TOP50.

• NZO event bio page
• and the Live Webcast page

for further information.You can download the sheets here

With only the Season-End Bonus Points 08/09 as a buffer, it’s all very open – current Swatch TTR World Champion Peetu Piiroinen is the only rider that has a chance to hold on to the Number 1 Spot by coming 1st or 2nd in the slopestyle. But last season’s NZ Open SS 3rd and current World Nr. 2 Chas Guldemond will give Peetu a run for his money (Peetu finishes 2nd on average in 5Star slopestole and Chas as well). Update: As Peetu is not competing in SS now he is certain to loose his Tour Lead. For Antti Autti it’s popping cherry time at the Open – first appearance of the experienced Fin at the NZ Part of the BGOS – and with great slope and pipe skills he will make sure it’s in the money and keeps him in that TOP5 (Antti finishes 4th in 5Star SS on average).

These three riders have the best chance to remain in that TTR TOP3 but with Canadian Charles Reid and half of the FRENDS crew there (Danny Davis, Luke Mitrani, Jack Mitrani and Mason Aguirre) it won’t be easy. Ah yeah, and Scotty Lago and Danny Kass are also somewhere on the island.

Check more of those stats and their career results with the latest TTR website release v1.x

 [vimeo width="640" height="360"]http://vimeo.com/6032758[/vimeo]

For the women it’s between the following girls – all of them with great slopestyle skills to push 08/09 Tour Champion Kelly Clark off her throne:

• Jamie Anderson (countless SS 5&6Star SS titles incl. the NZ Open SS 08 and 3rd in 5Star SS on average)
• Lisa Wiik (winner of the BEO 2009 SS comp and 4th in 5Star SS on average)
• Silvia Mittermueller (winner of the 5Star Canadian Open SS and 5th on average in 5Star SS)
• Sarka Pancochova (still lacks consistency but managed to finish 7th in 5Star SS on average in her career)
• Chanelle Sladics (won the 5Star Asian Open SS 2009 and 5th on average in 5Star SS)

Let’s see what happens – see it LIVE here: http://www.ttrworldtour.com/multimedia/live-webcast.html

• Lisa Wiik
• Silvia Mittermueller
• Kjersti Buaas
• Cheryl Maas (05/06 TTR Champion)
• Kelly Clark

For further more detailed information please contact: andy@ttrworldtour.com

RANK	NAME	COUNTRY	SCORE	# RES.	MAX. SCORE	INFO
1	Anderson, Jamie	USA	821,35	7	956,79	injured
2	Wiik, Lisa	NOR	785,99	7	863,09	TOP 5
3	Candrian, Sina	SUI	746,88	7	852,75	not there
4	Mittermueller, Silvia	GER	719,1	7	852,9	TOP 5
5	Pancochova, Sarka	CZE	690,73	7	803,29	TOP 5
6	Hollingsworth, Ellery	USA	669,84	7	788,03	–
7	Buaas, Kjersti	NOR	659,45	5	945,16	TTR Title
8	Maas, Cheryl	NED	651,58	6	854,76	TOP 5
9	Clark, Kelly	USA	644,77	5	930,48	TTR Title
10	Karlinski, Jordie	USA	597,25	7	731,98	–
12	O`Brien, Spencer	CAN	582,12	7	772,27	–
13	Sladics, Chanelle	USA	531,3	6	779	–
19	Bright, Torah	AUS	405,4	3	691,12	Only 5 res.

1. As they have the highest potential score (calculating with 2000 points), it’s between Kjersti and Kelly for the title, Kjersti having better chances with a higher maximum score and better Slopestyle skills
2. Example: Kjersti can finish TOP5 in both formats and wins if Kelly wins the HP and 8th in SS
3. Other girls in the game for TOP5: Lisa Wiik, Silvia Mittermueller and Cheryl Maas (who could all potentially still win the Tour)

Why are Kjersti and Kelly the 2 title contenders having a lot less point than Jamie and Lisa? They are also not even in the TOP 5 right now. Well, with only 5 out of 7 results, they are called “sleepers”, as they have the potential to jump up into the TOP spot at the last minute after hiding in the lower areas of the ranking till the very last minute (just like Shaun White, as he most often gets his 7th TTR 6Star result at the US Open). 06/07 TTR Champion Torah Bright will not be able to close the gap anymore as she currently only holds 3 results and 7 are necessary to accumulate the full ranking score (the best 7 results are taken and devided by 7).So Kelly and Kjersti are the 2 riders with the highest ability to win the Swatch TTR title 08/09 and Kjersti has a slight advantage in slopestyle (Her average statistical finish in SS at TTR events is 6th and HP is 8th while Kelly’s is 13th in SS and 3rd in HP). If we take the average finish and use it as it was next weekend Kjersti would have 888 points while Kelly would have 873 (again this is statistics and not snowboarding – but statistics can be pretty accurate).Check out what went down between Jamie, Torah and Kelly last year in Mammoth:[youtube width="640" height="380"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MP8EIffghEw&feature=channel_page[/youtube]The possible scenarios for the 6Star Halfpipe comp are as follows:

RANK	NAME	COUNTRY	AGE	6STAR Roxy Chicken Jam HP
1st	Jamie Anderson	USA	18	Could be bumped out from the World Nr. 1 spot only if Lisa places 1st
2nd	Lisa Wiik	NOR	29	Could take Tour Lead if she places 1st; stays 2nd otherwise
4th	Silvia Mittermueller	GER	25	Fights with Sina, Kelly, Kjersti and Cheryl for the World Nr. 3 spot
5th	Sarka Pancochova	CZE	19	Could move down in the TOP 10 even if places on podium
6th	Ellery Hollingsworth	USA	17	Could move down in the TOP 10 even if places on podium
7th	Kjersti Buaas	NOR	26	Fights with Sina,Kelly, Silvia and Cheryl for the World Nr. 3 spot
8th	Cheryl Maas	NED	24	Fights with Sina,Kelly, Silvia and Kjersti for the World Nr. 3 spot
9th	Kelly Clark	USA	25	Fights with Sina, Silvia, Kjersti and Cheryl for the World Nr. 3 spot
16th	Elizabeth Beerman	USA	17	Could improve her TOP 20 position
19th	Torah Bright	AUS	22	Could improve her TOP 20 position

For further more detailed information please contact: andy@ttrworldtour.com

With Jamie potentially unable to compete for the rest of the season the Women’s Tour seems to be wide open again. Norway is more likely than any other country to take the Women’s trophy home this season for the first time. Both Kjersti Buaas and Lisa Wiik are strong slopestyle and halfpipe riders, while Kelly Clark has her focus set on pipe. But if Sarka can put her run together incl. a very rare rodeo on the kicker or Silli puts down a solid run in the pipe and land her huge FS7 on the kickerlines they got their shot at the 08/09 TTR World Title just as much as Sina Candrian, who finished in the TTR TOP 10 the past 2 seasons.

RANK	NAME	COUNTRY	AGE	6STAR BURTON US OPEN HP
1st	Jamie Anderson	USA	18	Could be bumped out from the World Nr. 1 spot if Lisa places 1st
2nd	Lisa Wiik	NOR	29	Could take Tour Lead if she places 1st; stays 2nd otherwise
3rd	Sarka Pancochova	CZE	19	Fights with Silvia for TTR World Nr. 4
4th	Silvia Mittermueller	GER	25	Fights with Sarka for TTR World Nr. 4
6th	Sina Candrian	SUI	20	Fights with Lisa for TTR World Nr. 2
8th	Ellery Hollingsworth	USA	17	Could move into TTR TOP 5
10th	Cheryl Maas	NED	24	Could enter TOP 10
11th	Kjersti Buaas	NOR	26	Could enter TOP 10
12th	Spencer O’Brien	CAN	21	Could enter TOP 10
16th	Chanelle Sladics	USA	24	Could improve her TOP 20 position
21st	Cilka Sadar	SLO	17	Could enter TOP 20
44th	Torah Bright	AUS	22	Could enter TOP 30
74th	Shelly Gotlieb	NZL	28	Could enter TOP 40
104th	Katie Williams	USA	19	Could enter TOP 50 if she places up to 19th
106th	Cecilia Larsen	SWE	24	Could enter TOP 50 if she places up to 18th
118th	Diane Rudge	CAN	20	Could jump over more than 50 ranks and enter TOP 60
129th	Joanna Dzierzawski	USA	24	Could jump over more than 50 ranks and enter TOP 70
144th	Mary Sallah	USA	21	Could jump over more than 70 ranks and enter TOP 70
166th	Leanne Pelosi	CAN	29	Could jump over more than 80 ranks and enter TOP 80
185th	Jenny Jones	GBR	28	Could jump over more than 90 ranks and enter TOP 100

With 3000 more Swatch TTR points on the table for the women the race is far from decided and there will be another update next week before the RCJ 2009 in Mammoth.

GO HERE FOR THE WOMEN’S PREDICTIONS

RANK	NAME	COUNTRY	AGE	6STAR BURTON US OPEN HP
1	Peetu Piiroinen	FIN	21	Could loose Tour Lead if he places 8th or lower in the HP and Shaun places 1st
2	Chas Guldemond	USA	21	Gets bumped down by White. Fights with Risto and mostly Kevin for the World Nr. 3 spot, but can defend that spot if he finishes in the TOP 4.
3	Risto Mattila	FIN	28	Fights with Chas and Kevin for the World Nr. 3 spot
4	Kevin Pearce	USA	21	Fights with Risto and mostly Chas for the World Nr. 3 spot
5	Shaun White	USA	23	Needs to place 1st and Peetu 8th or lower in order to take the World Nr. 1 spot. If not he jumps up to World Nr. 2
6	Antti Autti	FIN	24	Has slight chances to enter TOP 5 if Risto does not ride well in the pipe
7	Charles Reid	CAN	18	Needs to place one place higher than Aguirre and Malin in order to stay on the World Nr. 7 spot / below podium he could even be one place lower than Aguirre and Malin and still to stay on the World Nr. 7spot
9	Markus Malin	FIN	21	Fights with Reid and Aguirre for the World Nr. 7spot
13	Tim Humphreys	USA	21	Could enter TOP 10
15	Luke Mitrani	USA	18	Could improve his TOP 20 position
25	Stale Sandbech	NOR	16	Could enter TOP 20 if he places up to 20th
29	Kim Rune Hansen	NOR	20	Could enter TOP 20 if he places up to 28th
49	Broc Waring	USA	16	Could enter TOP 40
50	Christian Haller	SUI	19	Could enter TOP 40 if he places up to 34th
54	Justin Lamoureux	CAN	32	Could enter TOP 40 if he places up to 36th
56	Scotty Lago	USA	21	Could enter TOP 40 if he places up to 28th
78	Scott James	AUS	14	Could enter TOP 60
85	Matt Ladley	USA	17	Could enter TOP 60 if he places up to 30th
115	Brennen Swanson	USA	19	Could enter TOP 80
119	Drew Brighton	USA	20	Could enter TOP 80 if he places up to 35th
135	Zachary Black	USA	18	Could enter TOP 100
138	Joseph Mensch	USA	17	Could enter TOP 100
154	Jeremy Thompson	USA	20	Could enter TOP 110
176	J.J. Thomas	USA	27	Could enter TOP 130
183	Louie Vito	USA	20	Could enter TOP 130
184	Tyler Troy	USA	19	Could enter TOP 140
202	Keir Dillon	USA	31	Could enter TOP 80 if he places up to 6th
205	Harrison Gray	USA	15	Could enter TOP 130
231	Bryan Daino	USA	18	Could enter TOP 150

Besides one lonely Canadian, the battle in the TTR TOP 10, evolves purely around Finland and the US boys (read a nice article about this topic here). And none of the top pipe shreds are below 21 years of age. But will experience prevail or can the youngguns like Stale Sandbech (NOR, 16) that came through the qualies or Oz’s supertalent Scotty James (AUS, 14) challenge the “old” dogs?More importantly: tomorrow’s Superpipe showdown sets up the final scenario for the battle between Shaun vs. Peetu for the TTR trophy on Sunday!If Shaun wins pipe and slope again he can make 100% sure he wins the Swatch TTR Tour! For Peetu with slightly better season results it looks a little better. He could finish 4th in one format, win the other and still win the title.  But it doesn’t only come down to the individual performance on those 2 days – other strong pipe riders like the FRENDS crew or the Fins could influence the outcome significantly.And then there is also the unexpected weather factor that almost broke Kevin’s neck last season by blowing him from finishing anywhere near the podium at last year’s slopestyle after a flawless season! So your only chance to follow the drama unfold will be to watch the live webcast!Check GO211 on Saturday and Sunday 8.45AM EST (check full live webcast schedule here)Keep checking this space for further updates and predictions after the pipe finals tomorrow!For more information on the startlists visit www.opensnowboarding.com

06/07 Tour Champion Torah Bright has not been competing much this season due to other commitments as a professional snowboarder and will therefore not be in contention for the Championship this season. But she still has a chance to finish inside this year’s TOP10 if she places high at the Open and the Chicken Jam next weekend!

So Peetu’s current score to beat without even him riding is 904,59. If we look at Risto’s potential points winning both formats in Stratton:(782,92 x 7 – (515 + 636,72) + 2000) / 7 = 904,10His score will still be lower than Peetu’s current score (this is called an “unassailable lead”) and KP can also not move past the Fin anymore. As you can see the only person able to beat the current World Nr. 1′s unassailable lead is Shaun White as he only has 6 out of 7 results, a strong Season-End Points Bonus 07/08, rewarding his achievements in the past season and he can substitute a weaker 5Star result (6th at Red Bull Snowscrapers). Long-term Tour leader Chas Guldemond, who lost his Nr. 1 spot against Peetu at the Air&Style Quarterpipe in Innsbruck end of January won’t have a chance for the title this season despite strong results at several 5 and 6Star events.So let’s take a closer look at the 2 Title contenders! PEETU PIIROINENWith only one 6Star title under his belt one might think the flying Finn won’t have the slightest chance against Shaun, who is decorated with any and all medals, trophies and titles a snowboarder can possibly win in his career. But this one victory over his fellow friend Risto Mattila Davos’ 6Star quarterpipe was only the tip of the iceberg as Piiroinen finished on the podium at every single 6Star comp he entered this season. At the BEO he finished in front of Shaun in 2nd in the slopestyle and if he hadn’t gotten hurt at the Oakley Arctic Challenge he would have been close to impossible to beat this season – even for Mr. White. But one thing that is going to help Peetu is the strength of the other riders like Kevin Pearce in the pipe that might be of relative advantage for Peetu, if they can hold Shaun back from winning twice again. Check out Peetu’s rider profile SHAUN WHITEThe 06/07 TTR World Snowboard Tour Champion, Olympic and multiple X-Games Gold Medalist could be the first snowboarder ever to win the coveted Swatch TTR trophy for a 2nd time!And his chances would be more than good if there wasn’t riders like Kevin Pearce or Danny Davis that have proved themselves capable in the past to be able to beat Shaun in pipe and slope. White has by far the most amazing career statistics of all riders on the Swatch TTR Tour and his average finish at all event he ever entered on the Tour equals 1 – no other rider can look back at statistics like that…But the 08/09 season has not been as flawless as usual and the  battle of  giants in the BEO superpipe with KP and slopestyle 3rd behind Peetu has caused the average to drop this time. Is this an indicator for Peetu to takes his chances and go for broke at the US Open?Check out Shaun’s rider profile hereIt will definitely come down to an epic tour finale this coming weekend and you can check the below stats to find out just how close it is.But there might also be an external factor to the equation guaranteeing a nailbiting finale. If anyone keeps Shaun from winning both formats the odds will automatically shift towards Peetu as he has already built a solid points foundation while Shaun needs those victories (see how the points dramatically drop from 1000 to 900 from 1st to 3rd place).SCORE VARIATIONS AT THE 6STAR US OPENShaun’s possible score variationsPeetu’s possible score variations The red areas indicate an unassailable lead after both formats, meaning that Shaun must win both to win the Tour for sure, but Peetu could come 1st and 2nd even if Shaun finishes first or second as well. And there could even be a last minute tour lead change already on Saturday where Peetu could loose the Nr. 1 spot if he places 8th or lower in Stratton’s superpipe and Shaun wins (which is not that unlikely – not only from a statistical standpoint). No matter what – Shaun will most likely jump up into Swatch TTR World Nr. 2 – hot on Peetu’s heals.There will be more updates from the US Open after the HP! Then you can find out about the latest TTR champions predictions and chances for the other riders to keep their spot inside the TTR TOP5!If you are really keen on more spreadsheet madness and in depth infos send a mail to andy@ttrworldtour.comAll in all – stay tuned to www.ttrworldtour.com to get the latest news, rankings and videos and don’t forget to watch the live webcast of the Burton US Open at GO211.com or tune into iphone.ttrworldtour.com if you are on the road with your new 3G.[vimeo width="640" height="360"]http://vimeo.com/3631550[/vimeo]